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The Cook Political Report on Friday updated its rating for Texas’s heated Senate race, moving it from “leans Republican” to “toss-up” amid new polls showing Rep. Beto O’RourkeBeto O’RourkeBiden will help close out Texas Democrats’ virtual convention: report O’Rourke on Texas reopening: ‘Dangerous, dumb and weak’ Parties gear up for battle over Texas state House MORE (D) in a tightening race with Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote The Hill’s Morning Report – Trump’s public standing sags after Floyd protests GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police MORE (R).
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The change in rating Friday came amid two other Senate race changes, with the prediction website changing the race for Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterSenate confirms Trump’s watchdog for coronavirus funds Montana barrels toward blockbuster Senate fight The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip MORE’s (D-Mont.) seat from “likely” to “leans” Democratic, while the West Virginia Senate race moved from “toss-up” to leaning in favor of incumbent Sen. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinTrump administration seeks to use global aid for nuclear projects Shelley Moore Capito wins Senate primary West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice wins GOP gubernatorial primary MORE (D).
Three Senate ratings changes today: #MTSEN: Likely D to Lean D ⇨#TXSEN: Lean R to Toss Up ⇦#WVSEN: Toss Up to Lean D ⇦
Full chart: https://t.co/qKOWMf9b82 pic.twitter.com/U25Rq8Kgbu
— CookPoliticalReport (@CookPolitical) September 21, 2018
Cook’s authors did not immediately give any explanation for the ratings change, but the move follows a series of polls showing Cruz with a small single-digit lead over his insurgent opponent, who has outraised Cruz by millions since the campaign began.
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A survey by left-leaning pollster Public Policy Polling found Cruz with just a 3-point lead over his opponent on Thursday among registered Texas voters. A Reuters–Ipsos poll the day before found O’Rourke with a 2-point lead.
“There’s a possibility it could happen. I’m not saying probable. But it’s possible,” Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told Reuters of O’Rourke’s chances in the Reuter’s poll release Wednesday.
An average of polls of the Texas Senate race produced by RealClearPolitics shows Cruz with a 4.5-point lead over O’Rourke.
O’Rourke is set to hit the campaign trail with Texas Rep. Joaquin CastroJoaquin CastroTop Hispanic Caucus members endorse Melissa Mark-Viverito in NY House primary Ousted watchdog says he told top State aides about Pompeo probe CHC says George Floyd death shows ‘tiny fraction’ of what people of color confront in their daily lives MORE (D) and his brother, former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro, according to a press release, following polls that showed him with an insufficient lead over Cruz among Hispanic voters.
The two Senate candidates are scheduled for their first debate on Friday.