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HOLLYWOOD, CA — Drum roll, please! And the Oscar goes to — Hollywood’s biggest and most glamorous night of the year! Yes, the 96th Academy Awards are happening this Sunday, March 10 and will be telecast live on ABC. So, movie fans, have you cast your ballot yet?
This year, “Oppenheimer” leads the field of contenders with 13 nominations. Will the juggernaut biopic dominate and sweep its major categories, including best picture and best director? Or will “Poor Things,” the second most nominated film, take the top prizes? And will Godzilla finally win an Oscar?
As we await the answers to some of our burning questions, Patch has compiled a breakdown of Oscar winner predictions in all 23 categories. Check them out below.
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Best Picture
Patch Prediction: “Oppenheimer”
Having swept the entire major guilds this awards season, “Oppenheimer” is well-poised to be the likeliest winner in the Best Picture category. Christopher Nolan’s masterpiece, an epic movie about the life story of the father of the atomic bomb, could even sweep the evening with at least eight accolades.
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Best Director
Patch Prediction: Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
This award is Christopher Nolan’s to lose, having won all the bellwether awards, including the Directors Guild Awards (DGA), the most historically predictive of them all. It’s been a long time coming for Nolan to win an Academy Award, and the timing could not be any sweeter for the trailblazing filmmaker. As it stands, Nolan has been nominated six times throughout his career in four different categories: best director, best picture, best foreign film and best original screenplay.
Best Actor
Patch Prediction: Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
At first, it looked as though this award was “The Holdover” star Paul Giamatti’s to lose after having won both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice awards. But the tide turned when Cillian Murphy, a first-time Oscar nominee, won the Screen Actors Guild award — which is a great Best Actor indicator.
Best Actress
Patch Prediction: Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Thespians Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone are both equally deserving of a win in this category. “Poor Things” star Stone appears to have the advantage in this category, having one prior win in the Oscars best acting category. However, Gladstone’s win would be historic and groundbreaking as she will be hailed as the first Native American Oscar winner in the best actress category — so, the prospects are looking better for Gladstone to snag the prize.
Best Supporting Actor
Patch Prediction: Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
All five nominated actors — Robert De Niro, Robert Downey Jr., Mark Ruffalo, Ryan Gosling and Sterling K. Brown — are all equally impressive. Nevertheless, Robert Downey Jr.’s dominance this awards season is undeniable, having won every precursor award.
Best Supporting Actress
Patch Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
Much like Robert Downey Jr.’s ascent in the leaderboard, Da’Vine Joy Randolph has scored all the major guild accolades, including BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes. “The Holdovers” star appears to be unstoppable to take home the Oscar for best supporting actress.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Patch Prediction: “American Fiction”
Historically, the winners of the Writers Guild of America (WGA) awards in the screenplay categories would go on to win the Oscars in the same categories. However, since the WGA awards ceremony will not take place until April 14, we cannot possibly use this guild at this time as a predictor.
Notably, it appears to be a three-way Oscar race for “Oppenheimer,” “Barbie” and “American Fiction.” Nolan’s magnum opus is the best picture frontrunner. Meanwhile, Greta Gerwig’s delightful script about the iconic doll won the Critics Choice Award (CCA), and Cord Jefferson’s spin on Percival Everett’s 2001 bestseller “Erasure,” won BAFTA as well as the Independent Spirit Awards. It is a tough call, but we are predicting a win for “American Fiction.”
Best Original Screenplay
Patch Prediction: “Anatomy of a Fall”
The French courtroom drama “Anatomy of a Fall,” written by Justine Triet and Arthur Harari’s, has shown an impressive awards trajectory, having swept Golden Globes, BAFTA and European Film Awards. However, we would not be surprised if Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers” or Celine Song’s “Past Lives” ultimately snags the Oscar.
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Best Documentary Feature
Patch Prediction: “20 Days in Mariupol”
Mstyslav Chernov’s “20 Days in Mariupol,” an incisive look at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is heavily favored to win in this category, given the relevance of the film’s narrative in today’s current world affairs. Besides, the gripping documentary has won BAFTA and DGA, along with the prestigious Pulitzer prize.
Best International Feature
Patch Prediction: “The Zone of Interest”
“The Zone of Interest” has won favorable support from the Academy, having been feted with four nominations: best picture, director, adapted screenplay and sound. And more importantly, like previous winners “Roma,” “Parasite,” “Drive My Car,” and “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Jonathan Glaser’s German language Auschwitz drama is the lone best picture nominee in the best international feature category.
Best Animated Feature
Patch Prediction: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
It is a two-horse race between Sony’s “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” and Hayao Miyazaki’s final film, “The Boy and the Heron.” Both are equally deserving of a win in this category. However, we’re predicting that the “Spider-Verse” movie will prevail, as it is more accessible globally for entertainment consumption.
Best Cinematography
Patch Prediction: “Oppenheimer”
Hoyte van Hoytema’s cinematography work on “Oppenheimer” is phenomenal, rendering expansive landscapes and close-up shots with riveting flare in the process. This award is Hoytema’s to lose, as “Oppenheimer” is poised to win big at this year’s Oscars.
Best Costume Design
Patch Prediction: “Barbie”
It is a toss-up between Jacqueline Durran’s radiant work on “Barbie” and Holly Waddington’s wildly imaginative work on “Poor Things.” In the end, we will call a win for the two-time Oscar winner Durran.
Best Film Editing
Patch Prediction: “Oppenheimer”
All indicators have lined up behind Jennifer Lame, whose editing work on “Oppenheimer” has won many accolades, including Critics Choice Awards, BAFTA and American Cinema Eddies (ACE) Awards.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Patch Prediction: “Maestro”
“Maestro” has an ace in this category. Check out the masterful makeup transformation of Bradley Cooper into Leonard Bernstein by Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell. It’s no easy feat — stunning beyond belief!
Best Original Score
Patch Prediction: “Oppenheimer”
Ludwig Göransson is heavily favored to win in this category, having swept the major guilds this awards season. Furthermore, the film composer has already won the Grammy for his “Oppenheimer” score.
Best Original Song
Patch Prediction: “What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie”
What a major feat for “Barbie”! The top two contenders in this category — “What Was I Made For” and “I’m Just Ken” — hail from Greta Gerwig’s whimsical take on the iconic doll’s story. However, Billie Eilish and Finneas’ song, “What Was I Made For,” has the edge to win the Oscar, as their song has already won the Grammy.
Best Production Design
Patch Prediction: “Barbie”
Although “Poor Things” won Art Directors Guild (ADG) and BAFTA, we can make a case for the “Barbie” world. It dazzles with its inescapable hot “Barbie” pink and Ken-tastic vibes. So, “Barbie” for a win!
Best Sound
Patch Prediction: “Oppenheimer”
The juggernaut “Oppenheimer” is the solid frontrunner in this category, given that it is expected to win cinematography, original score and editing.
Best Visual Effects
Patch Prediction: “Godzilla Minus One”
While “The Creator” won top prizes at the Visual Effects Society Awards, “Godzilla Minus One” had been more popular in the U.S. market. Besides, the post-World War II kaiju adventure movie has earned the iconic reptile its first-ever Oscar nomination. So, Godzilla is going to the Oscars for a big win in this category.
Best Animated Short
Patch Prediction: “War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko”
With its simplistic format, “War Is Over” is easy to comprehend. By contrast, the other major contender, “A Letter to a Pig,” is somewhat confusing. It is a tricky one to predict, but we will go out on a limb for the former.
Best Documentary Short
Patch Prediction: “The Last Repair Shop”
It is rather difficult to go against “The Last Repair Shop,” a story about people who repair instruments for Los Angeles public school students. The short documentary has more than enough coattails to win in this category.
Best Live Action Short
Patch Prediction: “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”
Big star names such as Benedict Cumberbatch, Ralph Fiennes, and Dev Patel can easily propel “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” to victory in this category. Plus, the short film is backed by Netflix globally.
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